Talking Point

In December this year, the Danish capital city Copenhagen will be at the centre stage of world attention. The city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference during 07-18 of the month. Called the COP15, the fifteenth annual Conference of the Parties, the meet will have delegates from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties, to deliberate and collectively respond to the challenges facing the humanity today, due to climate change.

The conference, assumes crucial significance this time as climate realities are at a perilous stage with the mankind standing at the crossroad. This is an opportunity to take a new pledge after the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol on emissions targets expires in 2012.

In a multi part series, we attempt to capture the key essentials of this global effort.

Climate recovery: By now, there is enough scientific evidence that climate change presents grave global risks, the cost of inaction is huge and it demands an urgent world attention. Many of the ill effects of global warming have been well documented; it is the precise extent that is a matter of debate.

Regarded as one of the significant authoritative work in assessment of the effect of global warming on world economy, The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change by economist Nicholas Stern, states:

• The scientific evidence points to increasing risks of serious, irreversible impacts from climate change associated with business-as-usual (BAU) paths for emissions.
• The benefits of strong, early action on climate change considerably outweigh the costs
  • Mitigation, taking strong action to reduce emissions must be viewed as an investment
  • The GDP bill for green investment predicted in the report is 1% of global GDP per annum, later in June 2008, estimated to 2% to account for faster than expected climate change.
• An effective response to climate change will depend on creating the conditions for international collective action.

Road to redemption: In a global issue like climate crisis, building and sustaining collective world action is an urgent challenge. The COP15 summit is therefore of monumental importance – in providing a world forum for all the UNFCCC parties to convene, deliberate and attempt to agree on a fair climate deal framework for the well being of the earth and its mankind.

Notwithstanding the deep socio-political divide between the industrialised, developed nations and the G77 grouping of developing countries, a platform of uniform shared vision of essentials has to be reached as the primary goal in the summit, followed by the finer nuances. Between the participating countries / blocs, there are vexing counter issues like; the developed nation’s climate debt to the developing world and therefore of compensation pay offs, transfer of technology and finance, on the other hand that the emerging economies are also now part of the top emitters list, will make the negotiations complex.

It however remains uppermost that this crisis needs a global, collaborative response to share challenges and every country / group / bloc ought to agree and chip in to mitigate and adapt to climate change actions. Any standoff between the blocs leading to a breakdown in talk is no option. The countries / blocs will have to be accommodative in working out an agreement in the common and larger global interest.

It is through acts of prudence and commitment, the participating countries can expect to reach global harmony for a low carbon action charter.

Let’s all unite to wish COP15 endeavours success to safeguard our earth, its fellow people and other living objects.

Copyright ©: Consultancy Services Group

In December this year, the Danish capital city Copenhagen will be at the centre stage of world attention. The city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference during 07-18 of the month. Called the COP15, the fifteenth annual Conference of the Parties, the meet will have delegates from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties, to deliberate and collectively respond to the challenges facing the humanity today, due to climate change.

The conference, assumes crucial significance this time as climate realities are at a perilous stage with the mankind standing at the crossroad. This is an opportunity to take a new pledge after the commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol on emissions targets expires in 2012.

In a multi part series, we attempt to capture the key essentials of this global effort.

The road to COP15: From setting up of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to Rio to Kyoto to now Copenhagen, the lead up to COP 15 stretches over two decades of UN efforts to control the adverse anthropogenic interference with the environment.

Chronologically put, the milestones are:

In June 1992, heads of state and representatives from 172 governments across the world met in Rio in Brazil in the first international agreement to limit emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) called the Earth Summit. More than 150 countries signed the climate convention at the Rio and in March 1994 the framework came into force.

In March 1995, the first annual Conference of the Parties or COP1 was held in Berlin.

During the decade of 90’s, it became increasingly apparent that given the exigencies, the UNFCCC convention by itself would not be enough towards the control of growing emissions. In 1997, in Kyoto Japan, at the COP3 for the first time, binding targets were set under the Kyoto Protocol for how much the industrialized countries should reduce their emissions by 2012. Not all signatory countries of UNFCCC ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the most notable non member being the US.

In 2005 Kyoto Protocol went into effect without the US. Under the protocol, 37 industrialized countries commit themselves to binding targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and all member countries give general commitments.

The Kyoto Protocol sets targets for emissions from 2008 to 2012. In 2007, at the COP13 in Bali, the member countries decided to work towards a new agreement for the post Kyoto years. The plan adopted, called the Bali Action Plan paves the way for COP15 in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Climate facts: The climate change is the outcome, caused by increasing concentration of GHGs resulting from indiscriminate human acts like unlimited burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, natural gas and deforestation.

Fossil fuels are in essence biodegraded plant matter from many millions of years and contain a high percentage of carbon and hydrocarbons. By human activity, the abundance of CO2 in the fuels has been getting released at an ever increasing rate. As a consequence, the layer of GHG in the earth’s atmosphere is getting thicker making the earth warmer and leading the humanity towards climate change implications.

The rate of global warming over the last 50 years has been nearly twice that of the last 100 years. According to IPCC the global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century. The IPCC fourth assessment report AR4 2007 indicates that the temperature could further rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.

According to assessment reports, to avoid the catastrophic effects of climate change, the average global temperature rise should stay below 2°C (3.4°F) than it was at pre-industrial times (circa 1800). Considering that the earth has already warmed since pre-industrial times, there is that less of critical margin left for maneuvering and this urgently calls for a rapid reduction of GHG emissions. Otherwise, by inaction we face the climate change impacts – which can potentially be devastating and pervasive.

For example, authoritative sources indicate that:

• Impacts due to global warming such as unpredictable rainfall, rise in sea levels, higher sea temperatures are not favorable to human race; leading to more frequent storms, floods and droughts. Such changes could transform the physical geography of the world with people migrating to newer places on a large scale.
• With the change in monsoon system, spread of deserts and erratic supply of fresh water from the melting of mountain glaciers, hundreds of millions of people will be food and livelihood insecure. The decline in crop yield could deny them the means to produce / purchase sufficient food and be the victim of malnutrition.
• Climatic disorder will bring in the risk of increases in serious diseases such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever and polio. Diseases like malaria and dengue fever could become more widespread due to longer rainy seasons.
• The climate effects would be damaging to the biodiversity and ecosystems around us. Species and marine lives will be facing the threats of extinction due to warming, deforestation, ocean acidification.
• Economy and environment are closely interlinked. Rise in climatic disaster rate, lower harvest yield, migration of people and livestock, disease management, livelihood security, protection of ecosystems would put the global economy under significant stress in an interdependent world.

The COP15 is therefore going to take place under alarming climate facts which implicate our ecosystems, biodiversity, climate imbalance to world economy, human health etc. – in effect in an overall lurking sense of insecurity for the future human race. 

Copyright ©: Consultancy Services Group

Danny Boyle’s, eight Academy Awards winning yet controversial film Slumdog Millionaire, set and filmed in India, gave the country another name derivative – the Slumdog Land. The name tagging apart, the film also carried a deeper symbolism for India, a land of many contradictions.

As India surges forward in taking big strides of development, there are millions of slumdogs, aspiring to become millionaires all over the country in their own entrepreneurial ways. The making of new India thus needs a thoughtful blend of big ticket macro development as well as the inclusive growth of micro-small-mid sized enterprises for a sustainable growth movement.

Propelled to Familiarity, 12th Feb 2009: Having satisfactorily concluded the Kolkata leg of our assignment, we headed to Guwahati on Kingfisher Airlines’ early morning flight. The flight was announced and we got on to the transit coach that would take us to the aircraft. After a pretty long journey (at one point I jokingly wondered if Kingfisher was planning to take us all the way to Guwahati by road!) we landed in front of one of those small propeller-driven aircrafts that didn’t require the regular, mobile staircase. We just hopped onto the aircraft and settled down into the rather cramped seats. The solitary ‘no frills’ stewardess secured the doors and the propellers started whizzing and we were off! Not very confidence inspiring somehow, after one get’s used to the wide-bodied Airbuses and Boeings.  

Guwahati, the capital city of Assam, is a familiar place for me. Apart from the fact that I had studied for a while in nearby Shillong, and had a lot of friends, our family has traditionally owned tea gardens in North Assam. The Loknath Bardoloi International Airport was now quite a massive, modern structure, a far cry from my mental picture of a small, rather sparse facility. Outside stood rows upon rows of gleaming Marutis, all shades of Indigos and Indicas, Ford-Ikons and other icons of the modern-day Indian auto industry. We got ourselves and our luggage into one such vehicle and off we went to the city. After a longish drive, we landed up at the Orchid Hotel, where we had been booked to stay. The room at the Orchid was adequate, nothing fancy. The TV had a lot of channels, the bathroom had hot and cold water and the bed was reasonably comfortable with clean linen. The aircon was not tested, as the waning winter still had a bit of a bite.

Picture taken at the author's family tea gardens in North Assam

That evening I contacted Hemanta Sharma, a batch-mate of mine from BITS Pilani. Soon he landed up at the hotel and took me for a drive around the city. Finally we ended up at the Guwahati Club, where a couple of other batch-mates joined us. We had a great time reliving our days together. None of us had really changed a lot in these last twenty five years! We could have all recognized each other in a crowded railway platform. Before we agreed to call it a day, Hemanta promised to organize a larger gathering the next day.

Big Fish in Small Pond, 13th - 14th Feb: The next day, in between work, I took time off to meet another close friend Ujjal. He now runs the Ford dealership in Guwahati and I found him sitting behind his desk in his office, peering into his laptop. Initial introductions and catching up over, he contacted some other common friends on his cell phone. One of them, Subroto Sharma, was my room mate at Shillong. Subroto now runs his family business in media and publishing. They publish the Guwahati edition of the Telegraph daily newspaper apart from other local dailies and magazines. Disappointingly, he was away at Kazirangha, where he had recently set up a resort. He asked me to drive down to Kazirangha (four hours drive), but my schedule did not permit that.

I was in for better luck with the other friend that Ujjal contacted on his cell phone. This was Amiya Sharma, who was also a class mate at Shillong and now headed a NGO, a major microfinance player in the North East! “Right up my alley”, I thought and went to visit him after saying goodbye to Ujjal and agreeing to meet for dinner later in the evening. Amiya was a topper at St. Edmund’s, Shillong. He did his post graduation from the Delhi School of Economics and a Phd. from the US. He was a good athlete I remembered and we used to play football together. He is CEO of RGVN, a respected wholesaler and retailer of microfinance in the North East. RGVN also happens to be a partner of MicroSave and so I took my two colleagues with me. After a good meeting he also agreed to join our evening’s dinner meet.

Our get together at the Guwahati Club that evening was a resounding success! Even the blaring loud-speakers of the “Bhupen Hazarika Felicitation Committee”i across the street could not ‘out-sound’ us. There were seven of us and a few more said ‘hello’ over telephone. The ‘Guwahati gang’ still maintained a closeness and enthusiasm that was infectious. Subroto Sharma called once again from Kazirangha and said he still remembered the Class XII Final Board exams where his seat happened to be just behind mine and joked that without that piece of providential luck he would be more likely hawking the Telegraph rather than publishing it!

On the way back to the hotel, Hemanta, who now owns the CEAT SHOPPE in Guwahati commented “We like to be the big fish in the small pond, rather than the other way around”. I realized that I had a great set of contacts, friends and well wishers if ever I planned to do something in the North East. I got back to Kolkata the next afternoon, after completing work at Nightingale. On the way back, I flew “IndiGo”, another recent addition to India’s aviation sector spectrum. With Indigos on the roads and IndiGos on the fly, India was getting to be a colorful place indeed! IndiGo mercifully used a regular Boeing aircraft.

To be continued …

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i I don’t remember exactly why this great musician was being felicitated.